{"id":8231,"date":"2020-04-19T14:26:22","date_gmt":"2020-04-19T06:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/?p=8231"},"modified":"2020-04-19T14:26:22","modified_gmt":"2020-04-19T06:26:22","slug":"the-next-few-years-may-be-years-of-frequent-crises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/the-next-few-years-may-be-years-of-frequent-crises.html","title":{"rendered":"The Next Few Years May Be Years Of Frequent Crises"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"37c28470d9d6d3cb9ff74e663adb766a\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:0px 0 0px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3594734025006597\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>On the morning of April 17, at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Mao Shengyong, director of the National Bureau of Comprehensive Statistics and spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced the operation of the national economy in the first quarter. Among them, the GDP in the first quarter fell by 6.8% year-on-year, and the added value of the secondary industry fell by 9.6%.<br \/>\nIn an interview with China News Weekly, Professor Zheng Yongnian from the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore stated that after the epidemic, each country will experience a painful period of adjustment, and there may be frequent crises in the next few years.<br \/>\nThe epidemic not only frustrated the real economies of all countries, but also faced new challenges in economic cooperation among countries. Zheng Yongnian proposed that in the future globalization may have to return to the model before the 1980s, that is, &#8220;limited globalization&#8221; in sovereign economies. He judged that the sanitary assets industry chain related to public safety, such as masks, protective clothing, and ventilators, will be the first to be localized.<br \/>\nOn April 16, Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular press conference that economic globalization is returning, but the general trend will not change. China will continue to unswervingly open wider to the outside world, relax market access, further expand imports, promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation during the opening up, and make China&#8217;s due contribution to the recovery and development of the global economy.<br \/>\nPainful adjustment period<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: Do you have any suggestions for the recovery of the Chinese economy after the outbreak?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: China&#8217;s epidemic has the greatest impact on the bottom of society, small and medium-sized enterprises, and micro-enterprises. For the bottom of the society with a large population, the suspension of manufacturing and service industries has caused them to stop working for many months in a row, which has a greater impact on life, so it is more effective to directly send money to them. Some people advocate the issuance of consumer vouchers, arguing that consumer vouchers can be used up within a month or two and can generate consumption, but if the RMB is issued, ordinary people may be stored in banks and not used, so there is no GDP benefit. But I think people get a sum of money even if they don&#8217;t use it right away. There is a sense of stability in the bank. Isn&#8217;t that better? If they are asked to use up their money for a few months, they will panic.<br \/>\nThe support for enterprises should be more inclined to private enterprises. The protection of small and medium-sized enterprises and micro-enterprises is the basis for protecting the middle class. The assistance measures are not limited to cash assistance. Tax reduction or even tax exemption can be considered. Various forms such as loans.<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: Affected by the epidemic, the process of economic globalization may be hindered to some extent. What impact will this have on China&#8217;s industrial chain?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: In the short term, there will indeed be an adjustment cost to China, but China now has a complete industry and the adjustment cost will be relatively small. After the epidemic, if some Western companies move out and there is a gap in the industrial chain, Chinese companies can make up immediately. In this way, China&#8217;s various industrial chains continue to adjust and optimize, and through technology upgrades, they will slowly move up, and China will produce more overall products, not just long-term OEM and assembly.<br \/>\nAfter the 1980s, the globalization process has intensified, and the production factors have been allocated globally, causing many industries in Europe and the United States to move to other developing countries such as China and India. China has invested production factors such as cheap labor and cheap land on a global scale, so our economy has developed. It can be said that China is a big beneficiary of the globalization process. But in general, the general trend of globalization will not change, even if China&#8217;s labor costs and land costs have increased. The West always needs China because they will not abandon China&#8217;s huge consumer market. The biggest attraction of China to Western capital is its huge market.<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: What do you think of the economic strategies of European and American countries under the epidemic situation?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: Is there still a world economy? The focus of countries now is how to save society, protect society, and then come to Japan to grow up. This is what we call &#8220;bottom line thinking.&#8221; Adult citizens in the United States can get at least $ 1,200, and some people can also get relief food. Europe and Japan also focus on saving society. This is worth learning from.<br \/>\nVarious countries are now pursuing quantitative easing policies and printing money. But printing money is just to save the fire and postpone the problem to the back, and the essential problem cannot be solved. There is too much money to print and inflation is about to happen. Who will pay for this?<br \/>\nTherefore, each country will inevitably undergo a painful period of adjustment. It will return to the right track until the three macro aspects of each country&#8217;s society, politics, and economy are balanced, and the industry is relatively balanced. Therefore, our next few years may be years of frequent crises.<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: How long do you think the crisis brought about by the epidemic can end?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: I think it depends on the development of the epidemic. Simply put, before the vaccine was invented, no one could say that the epidemic could be controlled. The Spanish flu of 1918 was controlled three times on the earth.<br \/>\nWhat people should pay more attention to is not which countries are under control like China, but which countries are not under control. Now, the virus has spread in African countries, but the economic capacity and public health system of many African countries cannot cope with this epidemic, which is very worrying. So I don&#8217;t think this crisis is just an economic and financial crisis. This time it may be a humanitarian crisis worldwide that is more serious than in 1918.<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: According to your observation, how have western countries evaluated China&#8217;s anti-epidemic results so far?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: During the epidemic, the anti-China and discrimination against Chinese people continued to make noise. I expect that after the epidemic is brought under control, a new wave of anti-China will be even greater.<br \/>\nI think China has been able to fight the epidemic this time. We have taken strong measures to control the situation in Wuhan, gradually resume production and resume work, and have the ability to supply medical supplies to more than 100 countries. We have done a good job. This is a global humanitarian crisis that began in China. We are actually doing humanitarian relief. But if the West says anything, we respond to it. We pay for it with our teeth. The credit and credibility of our actions have been digested by speech. .<br \/>\nIs now a great opportunity to promote the responsibilities of great powers. We need to be more confident and low-key now. The countries we help are big or small, rich or poor, or race, and wherever there is a humanitarian crisis we will go. This is the best discourse.<br \/>\n&#8220;Limited Globalization&#8221;<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: Where will globalization go in the post-epidemic era?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: Globalization will not stop, but the way of globalization is definitely different. The globalization we have been talking about is the globalization since the 1980s, and it has not been possible until today. Judging from historical experience, it may return to the &#8220;limited globalization&#8221; of the 1980s.<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: What are the characteristics of &#8220;limited globalization&#8221;?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: &#8220;Limited globalization&#8221; is globalization built on a sovereign economy. It has two trends, one is that European and American countries will relocate part of the industry concerning national security and people&#8217;s lives to their own countries. The other is that industries in various countries will be scattered around the world. I believe that globalization, built on a sovereign economy, is in the interest of all countries and China.<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: Why do you think global collaboration will move towards &#8220;limited globalization&#8221;?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: The existence of the world market is an assumption. The market with good luck exists, and the market with bad luck does not exist. For example, in the Sino-US trade war, the United States must control its so-called &#8220;threatening&#8221; national security technology in its own hands, and not allow Chinese technology to enter the United States, so that the world market will be eliminated.<br \/>\nUnder the COVID-19 epidemic, why are those European and American countries with fairly developed medical systems and public health so helpless? The EU countries once cooperated seamlessly, but in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, each country has returned to a relatively selfish state, and even there have been incidents of masking between countries. The reason is simple, because their production lines for masks, hand sanitizers, protective clothing, and ventilators are placed in other countries such as China. According to statistics from the United States, 80% of medical supplies and 97% of antibiotics in the United States are produced in China. Therefore, I judge that after the epidemic, European and American countries will move the industrial chain on the safety of people to their own countries. At the same time, it is also a rational market behavior not to put all eggs in the same basket.<br \/>\nChina News Weekly: Britain officially left the European Union at the beginning of this year, and anti-globalization political thoughts also appeared in Germany, Italy, and France. Why is there such a large-scale recession against globalization?<br \/>\nZheng Yongnian: Globalization since the 1980s is based on the comparative advantages of each country and every society. Globalization after the 1980s has formed the so-called global division of labor. In terms of added value of the industrial chain, the United States is in the &#8220;head&#8221; position (first echelon), and Europe and Japan are &#8220;chests&#8221; (the first Second Echelon), China is the &#8220;hand&#8221; (third echelon). Although the flow of production factors around the world has increased labor productivity, it has also created problems-in the past, politics, economy, and society were nested with each other. Now the economy is decoupled from society, the economy is decoupled from government, and capital They run everywhere, but society cannot run. In many countries, employment has been reduced, taxes have been reduced, and they have gone abroad. As a result, the income distribution gap has become wider and the middle class group has become smaller.<br \/>\nAfter World War II, the middle-class population of the United States accounted for 70% of the total population, but the middle-class population of the United States now accounts for less than 50% of the total population. Western society can no longer be called a middle class society, but has become a rich society. Their views of populism, anti-globalization, and anti-immigration in their political thoughts are all products of a highly differentiated society.<\/p>\n<div class=\"37c28470d9d6d3cb9ff74e663adb766a\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:0px 0 0px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3594734025006597\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the morning of April 17, at the press conference held by the State Council&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[272],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-today"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8231\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.whatchina.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}